Link to HTAP Homepage

Modeling Air Quality from the Global to Local Scales

May 11-15 2015, NCAR Center Green, Boulder, Colorado

Meeting Agenda


Monday, May 11 - HTAP2 Global and Regional Model Evaluation Workshop
Overview of Progress and Plans

HTAP2 & Objectives of the Workshop

Terry Keating

Status Reports from Contributing Modeling Groups

Representatives of modeling groups contributing to HTAP2 are asked to briefly summarize:
a) the status of their simulations and analyses
b) plans for additional simulations and analyses
c) initial findings related to model performance (Q1) and source attribution (Q2)
CICERO (OsloCTM3.v2) Marianne Lund (via web)
EMEP MSC-W (UNIMOD) Jan Eiof Jonson
ECMWF (C-IFS) Johannes Flemming (via web)
Lancaster University (FRSGC-UCI CTM) Oliver Wild (via web)
AQMEII3 Christian Hogrefe
TFMM / EuroDelta Marta Garcia
MICS-Asia3 Terry Keating (for Joshua Fu)
Univ. Tenn. Knoxville (Hemis CMAQ)
AeroCom / NASA GSFC (GOCARTv5, GEOS5) Huisheng Bian
University of Edinburgh, UK Met Office (UKCA) Ruth Doherty
SSEC-NESDIS (RAQMS) Brad Pierce (via web)
Univ. Col. Boulder (GEOS-Chem Adjoint) Daven Henze / Yanko Davila 
Georgia Tech (REAM) Yuzhong Zhang
U Iowa, JPL, GMU (STEM) Min Huang (via web)
NAGOYA, JAMSTEC, NIES (Chaser) Kengo Sudo
IITM (MOZART4) Sachin Ghude
Environment Canada (GEM-MACH) Sylvie Gravel
NCAR, Leeds, IASS-Potsdam (CAM-Chem) Louisa Emmons / Tim Butler
NOAA/GFDL (AM3) Meiyun Lin
SNU (GEOS-Chem) Terry Keating (for Rokjin Park)
Plenary Discussion of Themes/Issues Terry Keating
Tuesday, May 12 - HTAP2 Global and Regional Model Evaluation Workshop
Initial Evaluations of the Ensemble of Results  
Status of AeroCom/HTAP2 Server and Interface: Data and Tools Michael Schulz (via web)
Status of ENSEMBLE:  Data and Tools Stefano Galmarini
Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report / North American Inflow Analysis Owen Cooper
Global Ozone Model Evaluation: Lessons from ACCMIP Jordan Schnell
Plenary Discussion Terry Keating
Discussion of Initial Findings  
Introduction to Questions and Initial Statements  
Q1. Evaluation of Model Performance  

How well can current global and regional models quantify:
a) spatial patterns and temporal trends in
i) surface ozone concentrations
ii) fine particle concentrations
iii) nitrogen deposition
b) elevated levels of ozone in urban and regional locations, including high elevation sites?

Q2. Evaluation of Source Attribution  

How well can current global and regional models quantify:
c) contributions of local and regional anthropogenic sources as distinguished from
i) anthropogenic sources outside the United States or North America
ii) stratospheric intrusion
iii) biogenic, wildfires, wind-blown dust, and other uncontrollable emissions

Q3. Standards for Model Evaluation

Are robust and generally acceptable model performance standards established and routinely applied in the global and regional modeling communities?


Q4. Establishing Regional Boundary Conditions


In a nested system, how does global model performance affect regional model performance?

How should future-year boundary conditions for western U.S. regional modeling be determined or evaluated?

Plans for Additional Analyses (How do we improve our answers to Q1-Q4?)  
Further Evaluation and Sensitivity Analyses Terry Keating
Next Steps   
Wednesday, May 13 - Joint Session of HTAP2 and Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop
Ozone and PM Air Quality in the Western U.S.: Overview Pat Dolwick (moderator)
National Air Quality Program Management Challenges Related to CAA Planning Chet Wayland
Overview of Current O3 AQ and Recent AQ / Emissions Trends in the WUS Tom Moore
2014 DISCOVER-AQ and FRAPPE Field Campaigns - Science Team Report Gabriele Pfister / Frank Flocke
Update on Trends in Background Ozone Concentrations Owen Cooper
Messages from the March 31-April 2 Transboundary Ozone Pollution Conference Lance Avey
Ozone and PM Air Quality in the Western U.S.: Role of International Sources  
Overview of HTAP2 and Initial Findings Terry Keating
Regional Model Intercomparisons: Findings and Plans Stefano Galmarini
North American Inflow Analysis Owen Cooper
Future Global Scenarios & Next Steps Terry Keating
Ozone Air Quality in the Western U.S.: Role of Natural Sources Pat Dolwick (moderator)
Thunderstorm-mediated Stratospheric Intrusion of Ozone at Surface Sites Along Colorado's Front Range Pat Reddy
Results from Las Vegas Ozone Study Andy Langford
Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLMET) Research Program Update Chris Senff
Real-time Depiction of Stratospheric Intrusions in RAQMS/WRF-Chem Brad Pierce (via web)
Controls on O3 and SOA Production in Wildfire Plumes and Thoughts on Parameterization for Gridded Models Matt Alvarado
Ozone Air Quality in the Western U.S.: Modeling Background Contributions Pat Dolwick (moderator)
Interannual Variability on Boundary Conditions and Importance to Surface Air Quality in the Western U.S. Dan Jaffe
Key Drivers of Western U.S. Surface Ozone Variability Over Recent Decades: Stratospheric Intrusions, Asian Pollution, and Climate Meiyun Lin
Initial Results from 3-State AQ Modeling Study Related to O3 Background Zac Adelman
Modeling Estimates of Emissions-Influenced Background Ozone and its Relationship to Trends in the Western United States Allen Lefohn
Model Estimates of U.S. Background (U.S. Boundary Condition Inflow) Ozone Pat Dolwick / Jim Kelly
Identification of Outstanding Technical Issues Associated with Background O3 Gail Tonnesen
Thursday, May 14 - 2015 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop
Western States Air Quality Impacts from Fires Kirk Baker (moderator)
Ozone, PM, and Fire - Analysis Tools for Exceptional Events and Planning Matt Mavko (via web)
Impact of Wildfires on Air Quality Along the Wasatch Front John Lin
FIREX 2018 Field Campaign Carsten Warneke
Western States Air Quality Regulatory Drivers: National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), Exceptional Events, Regional Haze, NEPA, and Other Programs Kirk Baker (moderator)
Interactive Overview of Western States Air Quality Issues, Modeling Guidance, and Looking Forward on the NEI Kirk Baker
State Perspective on Monitoring Networks and Modeling Tools for Air Quality Planning Gordon Pierce
NEPA Photochemical Modeling Needs & NO2 Drill Rig Study Mary Uhl
NASA AQAST Program Support for Western U.S. Air Quality Management Tracey Holloway
Oil & Gas Emissions Inventory and Modeling: Inventor Comparisons, Top-down vs. Bottom-up Inventory Assessments, Activity Data, Emissions Factors, Control Efficiency, Oil & Gas Emissions "Tools" Overview and Update, VOC Speciation Projections Tom Moore (moderator)
Status of Western Regional (3-State, NW-Airquest, and Others) Air Quality Studies; Modeling and Monitoring Components / Reducing Uncertainty and Increasing Representativeness of Upstream O&G Emissions in the Western U.S. Tom Moore
2011 CAP/HAP National Emissions Inventory Development & 2014 NEI Plans for the Oil & Gas Exploration Sector Jennifer Snyder
Emissions Inventory and Modeling Issues for O&G Sector: VOC Speciation, Spatial Allocation, Stack Parameters, Temporal Allocation Zac Adelman / Alexis Zubrow
Using Growth and Decline Factors to Project VOC Emissions from Oil and Gas Production Whitney Oswald
Characterizing Oil and Natural Gas Field Emissions Using Top-Down Approaches in the Uinta and Denver-Julesburg Basins Raven Ahmadov / Stu McKeen
Winter Oxidant Photochemical Observation and Model Based Studies Gail Tonnesen (moderator)
Historical Trends in Ambient Data and Model Application for the Upper Green River Basin Darla Potter
Review of Key Findings from 2012, 2013, and 2014 Uinta Basin Field Studies Jim Roberts
SONGNEX 2015 Field Campaign Goals and Outcomes Joost de Gouw
Bakken Field Study Jeff Collett
Colorado Oil & Gas Emissions Studies
CMAQ Sensitivity to Uinta Basin Oil and Gas Emissions Inventory Updates Lance Avey
Poster Session  
Friday, May 15 - 2015 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop
Photochemical Model, Meteorological Model, and Observation Based Assessments and Investigations of Winter Time Elevated O3 and PM2.5 Air Pollution Events. These Events are Typically Associated with "Cold Pool" Meteorological Events that Combine Multi-Day Patterns of Cold Temperatures, Stagnant Winds, and Terrain Blocking Kirk Baker (moderator)
EPA/CARB Model Performance Comparison Using CALNEX Jim Kelly
Wintertime Ozone Chemistry and Snow Albedo Updates for CAMx Chris Emery
Residential Wood Emissions Inventory Development and Contribution Modeling Rich Mason / Kirk Baker
Numerical Modeling of Wintertime Cold Air Pools in the Uinta and Salt Lake Basin Eric Crosman
Western/3-State AQ Study Winter Ozone Modeling Kevin Talgo
Denver Ozone Modeling for NAAQS Attainment Ralph Morris
Rapid Roundtable Updates on Technical Work from States, Federal Agencies, and Other Stakeholders  
Concluding Remarks and Follow-up Items from this Workshop: Needs Assessment for Western States Air Quality Tom Moore