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Workshop on 2030 Emissions Scenarios

Laxenburg, Austria: 8-10 October, 2012

A small workshop was organized in October 2012 at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis to begin the development and analysis of explicit global air pollution emissions and control scenarios for use by TF HTAP and other efforts (Work Package 1.2 of the 2012-2016 Work Plan).  Because of space limitations, the workshop was limited to less than 40 participants. The primary objectives of the workshop were:

  • to review the underlying assumptions in 3 “benchmark” emission scenarios for the 2010-2030 period developed by IIASA with funding from the International Energy Agency;

  • to recommend modifications to the these scenarios that can be made quickly before making the data available for use by TF HTAP and others;

  • to identify alternative assumptions and issues that can be explored over the next year; and

  • to identify uncertainties that should be addressed as part of a longer-term research effort.
A report summarizing the workshop discussions and the presentation materials from the workshop are provided below. Revised scenario information and documentation is expected to be presented at the next TF HTAP meeting in March 2013.

Download - Workshop on 2030 Emissions Scenarios - Formal Report by the Co-Chairs


List of Participants
Monday, 8 October 2012
Introduction and Goals of Workshop Frank Dentener, Chair
Goals of Scenario Development (for TF HTAP and other purposes) Frank Dentener
Discussion (including picking up other perspectives on goals)  
2030 Global Benchmark Scenarios Rob Maas, Chair
Overview Presentation by IIASA Markus Amann
Comparison to RCPs Keywan Riahi
Comparison to RCPs Steve Smith
IMAGE, RCPs, Scenarios and PEGASOS Detlef Van Vuuren
Pan-European Gas-Aerosols-Climate Interaction Study (PEGASOS) DELIVERABLE – 3.2 Detlef Van Vuuren
Discussion of Benchmark Scenarios  
Mobile Sources (Road and Non-Road) Mike Walsh, Chair
Expectations for Sector Discussions Frank Dentener
Benchmark Scenarios for Road Transport Jens Borken
Issues for Discussion Related to Road Transport Mike Walsh
Development in Emission Inventory for Transportation in China Jiming Hao
Emission Projections from the Ttransportation Sector Fang Yan
Issues for Discussion Related to Non-Road Mobile Sources Sarath Guttikunda
Discussion (including regional perspectives)  
Tuesday, 9 October 2012
Electricity Generation and Large Scale Combustion Greet Maenhout, Chair
Benchmark Scenarios for Large Scale Combustion Zig Klimont
Issues for Discussion Related to Large Scale Combustion Greet Maenhout
Long Term Trends in Electric Power Steve Smith
Asian Perspective for Large Scale Combustion Shuxiao Wang
Methane Track Shawn Ragnauth/Jameel Alsalam, Chair
Benchmark Scenarios for Fossil Fuel Extraction Lena Hoglund
Issues for Discussion related to Fossil Fuel Extraction Shawn Ragnauth
Benchmark Scenarios for Waste Management Lena Hoglund
Issues for Discussion related to Waste Management Elaine Matthews
Sustainable Recovery of Energy and Nutrients from Waste and Biomass Paal Jahre Nilsen
"Small" Combustion Track Qiang Zhang, Chair
Benchmark Scenarios for Small Industry Emissions Zig Klimont
Issues for Discussion Related to Small Industry Qiang Zhang
Benchmark Scenarios for Residential Combustion Zig Klimont
Issues for Discussion Related to Residential Combustion Shu Tao
Agricultural Burning Jessica McCarty, Chair
Presentation on Agricultural Burning Scenarios Jessica McCarty
Shipping Christer Agren, Chair
Overview of Available Shipping Scenarios Jim Corbett
Update on Latest Policy Developments Christer Agren
Wednesday, 10 October 2012
Plenary Discussion of Parallel Sessions Rob Maas, Chair
Mobile Sources Jens Borken
Electricity Greet Maenhout
Methane Track Jameel Alsalam
Small Scale Industry Zig Klimont
Residential Combustion Zig Klimont
Shipping in HTAP Christer Agren
Other Issues  
Next Steps and Work Plan Frank Dentener, Chair
Review of Short Term "Fixes" Markus Amann
Priorities for 2013 Work Frank Dentener
Long Term Needs